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Only 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – going beyond the winner overall, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of ballots that came in later and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, renters and people struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year backed Zohran now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it so then no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really surprised me. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many Republicans on the island with a high participation. I think occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.