Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
