Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The mean number of everyday killings monthly in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent administrative figures. But, public safety experts have cautioned that homicide figures could fail to indicate enhanced national security.

Significant Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the head of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had over these months is very important,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that the previous month the smallest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Fierce organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s highly military efforts to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an seemingly sharper decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state said: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts cautioned that using homicide data to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is notably true in light of the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer useful for gauging the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was also concerning because it could hide periods when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Relying on the per-day average renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can cite the success of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

However despite these actions, Mexico continues to be plagued by high violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks after, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and throughout the country to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to build a story of improvement. Politically it’s very successful, socially it’s very problematic,” Vargas remarked.